5. Anticipatory Adaptation in the Context of Current Policies
and Conditions
A key message of the regional assessments in this report is that
many systems and policies are not well adjusted even to todays
climate and climate variability. Increasing costs, in terms of
human life and capital, from floods, storms and droughts demonstrate
current vulnerability. This situation suggests that there are
adaptation options that would make many sectors more resilient
to todays conditions and thus would help in adapting to future
changes in climate. These options, so called 'win-win' or 'no-regrets'
options, could have multiple benefits and most likely would prove
to be beneficial even in the absence of climate change impacts. In many countries, the economic policies and conditions (e.g.,
taxes, subsidies and regulations) that shape private decision
making, development strategies and resource use patterns (and
hence environmental conditions) hinder implementation of adaptation
measures. In many countries, for example, water is subsidized,
encouraging over-use (which draws down existing sources) and discouraging
conservation measures, which may well be elements of future adaptation
strategies. Other examples are inappropriate land-use zoning and/or
subsidized disaster insurance, which encourage infrastructure
development in areas prone to flooding or other natural disasters,
areas that could become even more vulnerable as a result of climate
change. Adaptation and better incorporation of the long-term environmental
consequences of resource use can be brought about through a range
of approaches, including strengthening legal and institutional
frameworks, removing preexisting market distortions (e.g., subsidies),
correcting market failures (e.g., failure to reflect environmental
damage or resource depletion in prices or inadequate economic
valuation of bio-diversity), and promoting public participation
and education. These types of actions would adjust resource use
patterns to current environmental conditions and better prepare
systems for potential future changes. The challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable
development by making use of existing technologies and developing
policies that make climate sensitive sectors resilient to todays
climate variability. This strategy will require many regions of
the world to have more access to appropriate technologies, information,
and adequate financing. In addition, the regional assessments
suggest that adaptation will require anticipation and planning;
failure to prepare systems for projected changes in climate means,
variability and extremes could lead to capital intensive development
of infra structure or technologies that are ill-suited to future
conditions, as well as missed opportunities to lower the costs
of adaptation. Additional analysis of current vulnerability to
todays climate fluctuations and existing coping mechanisms is
needed and will offer lessons for the design of effective options
for adapting to potential future changes in climate.
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