5. Anticipatory Adaptation in the Context of Current Policies and Conditions

A key message of the regional assessments in this report is that many systems and policies are not well adjusted even to todays climate and climate variability. Increasing costs, in terms of human life and capital, from floods, storms and droughts demonstrate current vulnerability. This situation suggests that there are adaptation options that would make many sectors more resilient to todays conditions and thus would help in adapting to future changes in climate. These options, so called 'win-win' or 'no-regrets' options, could have multiple benefits and most likely would prove to be beneficial even in the absence of climate change impacts.

In many countries, the economic policies and conditions (e.g., taxes, subsidies and regulations) that shape private decision making, development strategies and resource use patterns (and hence environmental conditions) hinder implementation of adaptation measures. In many countries, for example, water is subsidized, encouraging over-use (which draws down existing sources) and discouraging conservation measures, which may well be elements of future adaptation strategies. Other examples are inappropriate land-use zoning and/or subsidized disaster insurance, which encourage infrastructure development in areas prone to flooding or other natural disasters, areas that could become even more vulnerable as a result of climate change. Adaptation and better incorporation of the long-term environmental consequences of resource use can be brought about through a range of approaches, including strengthening legal and institutional frameworks, removing preexisting market distortions (e.g., subsidies), correcting market failures (e.g., failure to reflect environmental damage or resource depletion in prices or inadequate economic valuation of bio-diversity), and promoting public participation and education. These types of actions would adjust resource use patterns to current environmental conditions and better prepare systems for potential future changes.

The challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that make climate sensitive sectors resilient to todays climate variability. This strategy will require many regions of the world to have more access to appropriate technologies, information, and adequate financing. In addition, the regional assessments suggest that adaptation will require anticipation and planning; failure to prepare systems for projected changes in climate means, variability and extremes could lead to capital intensive development of infra structure or technologies that are ill-suited to future conditions, as well as missed opportunities to lower the costs of adaptation. Additional analysis of current vulnerability to todays climate fluctuations and existing coping mechanisms is needed and will offer lessons for the design of effective options for adapting to potential future changes in climate.


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